MOS Opening Weekend poll!

[theoj]

WB are surely hoping for a $100 million+ opening weekend, but how much more?!

I'm gonna go with a big $160 million estimate, which is entirely plausible and achievable.

[Deleted]

I say $140 million opening night til Sunday.

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[Deleted]

Or do they bump it to a Wednesday release like SR and many other summer tentpoles have done in years past? Just when you think you have the answer I change the question.










I was also rowdy before rowdy was cool.

[Melv]

I don't know much about opening weekend grosses, especially in the US, but I hope that overall it makes near a billion or more. Based on the reaction to the trailers so far, I think that's possible.

[Jimbo]

I can't see this making more than 100M in its opening weekend. Sure, there's good buzz, but it doesn't have the same kind of anticipation as Iron Man 3, which should surpass 100M. First entries don't make that kind of money. I'm gonna go low, and say 70M.

I'm laughing at the guys who think this makes Avengers money. ;D

[Keith]

I think the buzz for this movie it a lot greater that what we think. They are going to be doing huge marketing and promoting for this movie.

I'm going to say between 135-150 million if not a little more. I have a feeling there's going to be positive word of mouth and a lot of people will be seeing it, if not more that once opening weekend.

[ShogunLogan]

I'm with Jimbo on this. If it is good, it will have legs. Then the NEXT one could make Avengers money.

[Jimbo]

Avengers topped 200M, which is above and beyond the norm, even for the biggest movies. That won't happen again for a while (not until Avengers 2, I bet).

I think MOS will do 70-80M opening weekend, top out around 300, and if it's a knockout, then the next one will do TDK money, around 150M opening.

[EnriqueH]

I think between 70 and 130.

Word of mouth is the major variable here. If it's perceived as "must see", it will do better in the long run.

I can remember back when TDK came out, a guy told me about 2 weeks after it came out, "I'm finally seeing it today because I'm sick of hearing how awesome it is."

If, on the hand, it resembles more SR: slow going, EMO, not enough action, then the movie is FUCKED.

[Deleted]

I'm with Jimbo here. There's a bit of a buzz but first entries don't generate that kind of money on opening weekend.

between $70m and $110.

hopefully its great, word spreads and it goes on to gross big tough, and the sequel pulls in huge numbers opening weekend. Getting ahead of myself

[crazy_asian_man]

I can't see this making more than 100M in its opening weekend. Sure, there's good buzz, but it doesn't have the same kind of anticipation as Iron Man 3, which should surpass 100M. First entries don't make that kind of money. I'm gonna go low, and say 70M.

I'm laughing at the guys who think this makes Avengers money.

I agree with Jimbo, too...

While we all seem to agree how great the new trailer is, Avengers was a one-of-a-kind movie event with so many characters coming from different successful films brought into one- the novelty factor was there + it was a good movie.

With MOS--- it's a solo superhero film, in a time when there have been some really great superhero films in the last several years.

TDK's giant box office arguably is the mix of Heath Ledger's death so close to the release; Anticipation for a new interpretation of the Joker on the big screen (since the previous one had gone way back to Jack Nicholson's version) continuing from the well-received Batman Begins; and repeat biz from people who were suprised (myself included) just how good it was.

I don't think it's impossible that MOS turns out so good that it generates a billion dollars- but with the amount of really good supehero films out there that soon get converted over to dvd for home viewing months later--- I'm just not sold that people will definitely rush out there to see it on the giant screen in the first week to blow away all records.

Anyhow, it's all a guess of course. Betting on modest numbers for the first week--- then if it's a fantastic film, then sky's the limit... maybe.

[Shane]

More than SR will be a start

[crazy_asian_man]

More than SR will be a start

I'd be pretty suprised if it doesn't.

As much as I loved SR, that was more of a character piece/relationship film than anything else.... that it made $391 million worldwide is pretty amazing, given its lack of superhero action-

By comparison, if the trailer for MOS is any indication (and its pretty safe to say it will be), that it has at least one big superhero action sequence alone should push it past SR, I would think.

Whether it pushes it past SR by a LOT or just a modest amount, is the question....

(Plus- again- how much box office is needed for WB to consider it a hit...)

[Deleted]

In saying that SR had this thing of being the first Superman film in 20 years.

On the other hand, SR could have actually damaged MOS in the sense that I think it put people right off Superman.

[Shane]

Apr 22, 2013 19:13:26 GMT -5 @kris said:

In

On the other hand, SR could have actually damaged MOS in the sense that I think it put people right off Superman.

I highly doubt that mate

[Deleted]

When ever I mention MOS to someone more often than not I get a comment about how pish SR was. I just hope it hasn't put the casual fan off.

[Shane]

I only have had one person mention that to me regarding SR

[Jimbo]

We'll see. The only recent equivalent is the two Hulk movies. The Eric Bana movie took in 62.1M in its opening weekend in 2003, but the Ed Norton movie took in only 55.4M, despite a better reception.

MOS has some things working against it, but not like The Incredible Hulk did. So I expect a modest climb from SR, 70-80M.

[eccentricbeing]

70-80 million for the weekend??? Nah, that's not going to happen. If by the week before release, we're getting critical praises from this movie....it's making $120 at the LEAST. Plus, it has IMAX 3D releases...so the BO reception is going to be higher.

At 70-80 million...that's only if it gets poor word of mouth. That Friday morning or afternoon where some of us are going to writing our reviews....if they're filled with awe and inspiration, this movie may break $150.

[Deleted]

The world kinda needs a movie like this right now. It might even want it. I think it's gonna be huge.

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[atp]

Apr 22, 2013 16:14:22 GMT -5 EnriqueH said:

If, on the hand, it resembles more SR: slow going, EMO, not enough action, then the movie is FUCKED.

Compared to SR, MoS will be longer, more flexible, and very much alive.

[Deleted]

I'm keeping expectations conservative. It's not a sequel, or a book adaptation, or a sequel to a book adaptation, and based on recent history that means the ceiling for it is probably lower . I'm thinking $125 million max....probably closer to $90-$110 million. I originally had it doing $290 million domestic, but I think it'll do more than that after seeing the buzz pick up over the past month. It should have decent legs if it's good. World War Z looks like a turd, so I doubt it'll be huge enough to completely wipe out MoS.

[crazy_asian_man]

In saying that SR had this thing of being the first Superman film in 20 years.

On the other hand, SR could have actually damaged MOS in the sense that I think it put people right off Superman.

If SR had no Smallville on tv at the same time, or Lois and Clark previously, I would think that it could have boosted SR's box office more just from a novelty factor--- but I also know people who dismissed SR at the theatres, thinking it was nothing more but an expansion of Smallville, so there's also that to factor in, too in regards to SR's box office.

As far as SR ruining MOS - WB's decisions have seemed to go out of its way creatively to make it seem like MOS is a completely different entity from SR- most pointedly in not casting Routh again in the lead.

Plus, the marketing and trailer seems so far ahead of SR's that I have some doubt as to what influence SR would have on general moviegoers (not comic fans per se).... plus, 7 years have already passed, so there's that.

SR was also primarily a relationship film, disappointing those who expected it to be action packed.

With MOS and the trailer- it's pretty clear it's going to have action.
If there are people who would avoid going to MOS just based on SR, I have a hunch there's going to be enough buzz on the action sequences in it to override that- provided Snyder delivers on what the trailer suggests.

[Deleted]

Marketing is more important than it's ever been because social media makes word of mouth so much stronger. It's not just your circle of friends in family, but anyone you can connect with online. Forums such as this one showed that in action, and things like Twitter and Facebook now reach the masses who wouldn't find a site such as this one.

SR came out before Twitter hit big, before smartphones and tablets, all tools for connecting people and for reaching those people with your product. MOS is being marketed well, and it's going to explode after IM3 hits theaters and is out of the way. Considering how weak the rest of June and July look, it has potential to be huge.

[theoj]

I'm telling you $100 million minimum without even trying!
Based on great buzz about the trailer and IMAX and 3D prices.

But I'm betting on $150 million+ !

And the more people who see Iron Man 3 and Star Trek 2 will see the MOS trailer before it and be up for it too!